On Escalation; Metaphors and Scenarios
Kahn, Herman
Published by Pall Mall Press, London, 1965
308 pages.

Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922- July 7, 1983) was one of the preeminent futurists of the latter third of the twentieth century. He was a founder of the Hudson Institute and originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at RAND Corporation, USA. He was known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability; a notoriety that made him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's film satire, Dr. Strangelove. His theories contributed to the development of the nuclear strategy of the United States. Kahn's major contributions were the strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate "the unthinkable", namely, nuclear warfare, by using scenario planning and applications of game theory. In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there. Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path. In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.

Title: On Escalation; Metaphors and Scenarios
Publication Date: 1965
Binding: Hardcover
Edition: Presumed first edition/first printing.

Skick gott i enlighet med bilder. Bokens pappersomslag är lite slitet enligt bild.
Avhämtning i Abrahamsberg eller sänds med Posten/dhl/schenker. Jag kan även mötas upp i Stockholm eller hjälpa till med frakt runt Mälardalen, mellan Stockholm och Arboga (med en viss fördröjning). Samfraktar gärna!